Matthew S. Wilson

I'm an amateur chess player and writer. On several occasions, I have combined my interests, using my econometrics knowledge to write about chess statistics. On my blog, e4stat, I forecast who will win top chess tournaments. Occasionally there is also a photo report if I have to chance to watch the tournament in person.

My essay, "Are the Chess World Champions Just Lucky?", discussed hypothesis testing and World Championship matches. It was published on, one of the world's top websites for chess news. Links to Part 2 and Part 3

ChessBase also published “1.e4 – ‘Best by Test’?”, an essay about the best first move. Link to Part 2

In "Reforming the Candidates' Cycle," I use a statistical model to optimally design the World Championship format. It was published in Chess Life, the most widely read chess magazine in the world.

"Is Your Opponent Underrated?" discusses inflation and deflation in the chess rating system. For some states, players significantly outperform their ratings in national events. In "Fischer-Karpov 1975: Who Would Have Won?", I use simulations to estimate the outcome of the match. The real match never took place because Bobby Fischer refused to agree to the conditions. As a result, he was forfeited and Karpov became the world champion.

Thanks to my other hobby, I appeared in the Boston Globe


The e4stat logo: a bivariate normal distribution under a chessboard